Will gold cross its life time high
Posted on Jul 27, 2020 at 12:00 am
Since a long time, markets were expecting gold to cross the crucial $1900 mark. But such a speedy momentum was quite surprising. Gold prices have climbed 20% since late March and more significantly 25% so far this year.
Around 6 months back gold was seen trading withing a range of $1400-$1500.
But after the pandemic widespread, national economies began to shut down and gold began to rise up.
Spot gold topped US$1,900 an ounce for the first time since 2011 and edged closer to an all-time high with flaring geopolitical tensions and concern over global growth driving demand for haven assets.
And if the yellow metal continues to move at this pace then it is soon expected to reach or maybe even cross its life time high of $1920 or probably it may even get close to $2000.
In such an ambiguous environment, its very difficult to predict anything.
And all this doesn’t stop here. tensions between China and U.S continue to rise; dollar continues to fall and moreover there will be additional fiscal stimulus as economies move towards the path of recovery. All these drivers will be holding significant importance while gold rallies.
Increasing signs that the prolonged pandemic is stalling an economic recovery and the recent spat between China and the U.S. are underpinning bullion’s appeal. The metal is also getting support from a confluence of low or negative real rates and a slipping dollar amid massive liquidity injections from governments and central banks worldwide. The weaker dollar and plunging yields on government bonds are supporting gold prices. Let’s see how? –
Fiscal Stimulus- All the additional fiscal stimulus being introduced around the world has been clearing the path higher for gold. A lot of money is being pumped into the markets. This has been quite a supported for gold.
The EU leaders have reached a massive stimulus deal this week in the form of a 750 billion-euro ($857.33 billion) recovery fund that is related to the 1.1 trillion-euro 2021-2027 budget.
The attention is now shifting to the U.S., which is likely to announce another fiscal package next week.
Covid- Many companies world over have claimed of launching Covid vaccination in a few months. But there is not much that we know about the recovery as the virus continues to mutate and is very much likely to spread into a second wave. As a result, the path and timing to economic recovery not certain and may take a while to figure out.
U.S- China Tension- The U.S.-China tensions saw another escalation Friday when China retaliated for Houston's consulate closure by ordering the U.S. to close its consulate in the city of Chengdu.
The U.S. move seriously breached international law, the basic norms of international relations, and the terms of the China-U.S. Consular Convention. It gravely harmed China-U.S. relations," China's foreign ministry said in a statement.
This rise in tensions, along with a weaker U.S. dollar, is creating a very gold-supportive environment for traders.
U.S Dollar- The U.S. dollar is pretty much on its knees, political tensions between the U.S. and China are at their highs. The weaker U.S. dollar is also helping international buyers acquire gold and silver, which in turn, boosts the price
As the above-mentioned drivers continue to be active in the market, we can expect gold prices to break new records until world economies are on a predictable path toward recovery without the fear of inflation, which given the early stages of the economic crisis caused by this pandemic.
